Heading for hunger

Here in ‘the land of the pure’ the future, as relating to food, is definitely bleak. —

Hungry people are angry people and, unless immediate, properly thought out action is taken, both the food and security situation throughout Asia is set to deteriorate rapidly in the years to come.

Chronic food shortages, spawning social unrest, will plague the entire region by 2050 at the very latest, according to a recently released report issued by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation with input from the International Water Management Institute. It also indicates that the Asian population will increase by approximately 1.5 billion people over the next 40 years.

The majority of arable land throughout the area is already under production so there is little room for expansion, although land currently classified as ‘barren’ could, with informed management, be brought into play, but one of the main problems to be overcome relates to the incorrect use, blatant wastage in some situations, of that increasingly precious commodity….water.

An estimated 70 per cent of the world’s irrigated agriculture lies in Asia and yet, on the whole, farmers are stuck in the groove of using archaic irrigation practices which are depleting easily available groundwater at an alarming rate, groundwater which is no longer replenished by ‘user friendly’ rainfall patterns as these have altered dramatically.

A high percentage of those farming irrigated land work completely outside any government control, therefore, if they feel the need to bore tube wells deeper each season, they just go ahead and do it without any concern for the future viability of their own and adjoining land, let alone the overall impact on the localities’ potable water supplies. Over exploitation of water in this manner will ultimately result in widespread crop failures leading to famine unless, that is, farmers can be taught, even, in some scenarios, forced to manage water supplies correctly and/or switch over to cultivating different, less thirsty crops.

Irresponsible water usage is only one part of the existing agricultural problem: out-of-date agricultural practices in respect of soil management, tilling, sowing, pest control et al, right down the line to harvesting and storage techniques, all urgently need to be revamped towards sustainable, highly productive agricultural practices but, even this isn’t enough to head off the hovering spectre of hunger.

In Pakistan, for example, where many people are already feeling the pangs of hunger and malnutrition, edible grain production has actually increased by approximately 25 per cent over the last nine years, a figure exceeding the population growth over the corresponding period of time, yet basic food is either not reaching those in need or is far too expensive for them to even think of purchasing on a regular basis. Inept distribution techniques coupled with a large dose of pure, unadulterated greed, have allowed government and commercial interests to rake in their ill gotten gains at the expense of the people they purport to serve.

Then there is the much touted prospect of ‘corporate farming’. A nefarious system under which the government intends leasing, or selling, huge swathes of potentially productive agricultural land to overseas governments and multinationals at give away rates, the farms thus created, (inevitably at the cost of small farmers and bound agricultural labourers), cultivating edible crops or bio-fuel material for export purposes only. The reason for this is quite simple, their own countries of origin are not able to produce the required tonnage of food/bio-fuel for them to be ‘secure’, therefore they look towards ‘developing’ countries with land to ‘spare’ or with governments which prefer profits over the fate of the indigenous population.

Naturally, agricultural improvements must be linked to strict water management and, going back to the UN report on this basic issue, it points out that the region of South Asia, including Pakistan, requires at least 57 per cent more water by 2050 simply in order to maintain the current area of irrigated farming; East Asia will need an increase of 70 per cent which is where climate change comes in.

The UN forecast of food shortages does not, at this stage, take into consideration the growing impact of global warming which is already having a visible impact on rainfall patterns. Rainfall is more erratic now, some areas receiving more than normal, others far less and the resultant impact on agriculture of all kinds, not just irrigated agriculture, is worryingly visible right now and, if long term forecasts are anywhere close to being correct, will only get worse.

Here in ‘the land of the pure’ the future, as relating to food, is definitely bleak.